The recent US-Israeli military actions against Iran, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have elicited a complex response from Moscow. While there is concern among Russian officials about the potential for similar actions against Russia, some commentators view these developments as a validation of Russia’s geopolitical strategies, particularly its aggression in Ukraine. This perspective reinforces the Kremlin’s long-standing belief that the US-led West operates as a rogue actor on the global stage.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the situation in Iran may evoke memories of the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, which he perceives as a cautionary tale about the consequences of Western military actions. The ousting and subsequent death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, which was celebrated by Western leaders, did not lead to stability in Libya but rather to civil strife. This historical context shapes Putin’s view of the current geopolitical landscape and reinforces his resolve to resist what he sees as Western attempts at “democratization.”
Despite the apparent alignment of interests between Russia and Iran, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Moscow’s capacity to support Tehran is limited. The Kremlin maintains an informal nonattack pact with Israel, which has refrained from supplying military aid to Ukraine and has become a refuge for Russian oligarchs. This relationship complicates any potential Russian intervention on Iran’s behalf, as it could jeopardize ties with Israel and the United States.
In the short term, the US-Israeli operations against Iran may inadvertently benefit Russia economically. The conflict has already led to a rise in oil and gas prices, providing a financial boon to the Russian state. Additionally, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could deplete US military resources, potentially affecting support for Ukraine. This scenario allows Moscow to leverage its position in ongoing negotiations with Ukraine while bolstering domestic support for Putin amid perceptions of external threats.
Overall, while the situation in Iran poses challenges for Russia, it also presents opportunities for the Kremlin to reinforce its narrative of resilience against Western aggression and to capitalize on the shifting dynamics of global energy markets.
