FEWS NET projects emergency hunger in three Yemeni governorates through January
Yemen Herald News 
ADEN, Yemen — Emergency levels of hunger will persist in three Yemeni governorates through January, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said in an outlook update.
The network, known as FEWS NET, named Al-Hudaydah, Hajjah and Taiz. It projected Crisis conditions, with pockets of households in Emergency, across every other governorate.
The account rests on FEWS NET’s own analysis. No independent confirmation of its projections has been published, and Yemen Herald could not verify them.
The labels come from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification scale, on which Phase 3 is Crisis and Phase 4 is Emergency.
The update covers August 2026 to January 2027. It is based on information available as of Aug. 28, the network said.
Needs will peak during the lean season through September, according to the outlook. Some improvement is expected once the main cereal harvest begins in October.
Those gains will be short-lived, FEWS NET said. Rainfall through mid-August was largely below average, it said, constraining pasture, rainfed crops and demand for agricultural labour.
The network listed Taiz, Lahij, Abyan, Shabwah and parts of Hadhramaut among the areas worst affected by the rainfall shortfall.
Fighting has escalated since July, the outlook said. It cited confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi-run authorities in Sanaa, more clashes between those authorities and the internationally recognised government, and wider use of drones and missiles.
Conflict activity reached its highest level of 2026, according to the report. Citing data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, it recorded 132 events in June and 131 in July, against a monthly average of 51.4 between January and May.
Preliminary figures through Aug. 21 showed more than 250 direct incidents between the two Yemeni sides, an average of 12 a day, the network said. The comparable figure for January to May was 1.7 a day.
Data from the International Organization for Migration indicated 567 households were displaced between Aug. 1 and 22, largely because of fighting, and mainly from Al-Hudaydah, Taiz and Marib, the outlook said.
Attacks on trade routes have narrowed shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Transits fell 24 percent by early August compared with the period before the Houthi blockade, FEWS NET said, citing shipping data.
Mainstream tanker traffic declined 42 percent as vessels were rerouted or delayed. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab routes are expected to stay above pre-July levels through January.
Damage at Mukha port has added to the disruption, the outlook said, describing suspended operations and interrupted trade across western Yemen.
Prices have moved with the disruption. An assessment in Al-Hudaydah and Hajjah found wheat flour up 17 percent between January and July, mezah rice up 14 percent and canned beans up 17 percent.
The cost of the minimum food basket was 6 percent higher in July than in January, the network said. It reported larger increases in Socotra at 22 percent, Marib at 12 percent, and Abyan and Hadhramaut at 11 percent.
Fuel has followed. A 20-kilogram cooking gas cylinder sold for more than 15,500 Yemeni rials on the informal market in early August, against an official price of 8,500 rials, according to the report. By late August the informal price passed 20,000 rials.
Aden has been hardest hit by service failures, FEWS NET said. Electricity outages there reached eight hours off for every two hours on, it said, alongside water shortages and constrained gas supply.
In areas held by the internationally recognised government, liquidity shortages and weak revenues continue to limit public salaries and services, the outlook said.
The Central Bank of Yemen in Aden announced an auction of 30 billion rials in treasury bills in July, carrying a 20 percent annual yield, to draw investors and improve market liquidity.
In areas administered from Sanaa, the network described a fragile economy, citing depleted foreign currency reserves, liquidity constraints, sanctions and limited revenue.
Price controls have held the exchange rate and fuel prices steady there, the outlook said, but pressures intensified in August as port disruption spread.
Humanitarian food assistance is uneven. The World Food Programme completed a fourth cycle of targeted emergency food assistance in July, reaching more than 1.5 million of a targeted 1.7 million people, FEWS NET said.
That ration covered between 25 and 50 percent of a household’s minimum energy requirement for the month. A fifth cycle began in mid-August.
In areas administered from Sanaa, all such activities remain suspended, according to the report.
FEWS NET said most assumptions behind its June outlook remain valid. It expects hostilities between the two Yemeni sides to keep rising as the understandings that held since the 2022 truce erode.
Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Sanaa authorities is expected to continue through the projection period without becoming a sustained high-intensity war, the network said.
Temporary local shortages are likely in conflict-affected areas, with upward pressure on prices for imported goods.
Fishing along the Red Sea coast is expected to pick up seasonally from October, as monsoon winds subside.
Operating costs, maritime insecurity and the damage at Mukha will hold those earnings below last year’s, the network said.
The network publishes its Yemen outlook periodically. The August update revises an analysis issued in June.
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